Friday, August 18, 2023
HomeForexFX Weekly Recap: August 7 – 11, 2023

FX Weekly Recap: August 7 – 11, 2023

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Foreign exchange market gamers zoned in on Chinese language information and U.S. inflation figures this week as these are inclined to strongly have an effect on financial coverage expectations and sentiment.  These stories signaled potential slowing inflation and development situations on internet, spurring merchants to steadiness narratives like calls for added stimulus from China, a peak within the Fed fee hike cycle, in addition to combined Fed communicate all through the week.

Missed the key foreign exchange headlines? Right here’s what it’s worthwhile to know from final week’s FX motion:

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Regardless of jitters forward of the July U.S. CPI launch, the greenback began off on a constructive word, as threat aversion got here in play early within the week.

Because it turned out, China’s commerce exercise took main hits not too long ago and the dearth of readability on extra stimulus stored buyers cautious of a possible world recession.

The Dollar paused from its climb midweek as merchants most likely eased up on their lengthy positions forward of the highly-anticipated inflation report. A little bit of consolidation ensued, adopted by a kneejerk UpSD selloff upon seeing weaker than anticipated annual CPI.

Greenback bulls had been fast to get again on their ft, although, as U.S. bond yields dismissed the subpar information and market watchers doubtless centered on how the month-to-month headline and core CPI got here according to estimates, and certain bullish on hawkish feedback from Fed Governor Daly.

The Greenback was in a position to maintain onto its good points on Friday due to a better-than-expected PPI replace countering a shock weaker shopper confidence learn from the College of Michigan.

🟢 Bullish USD Headline Arguments

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned through the weekend that extra rate of interest hikes could also be wanted

U.S. Commerce Steadiness for June: -$65.5B (-$65.1B forecast; -$68.3B earlier)

San Francisco Fed Chief Daly says Fed nonetheless has extra work to do on controlling inflation and that Thursday’s CPI numbers got here out largely as anticipated

U.S. Producer Value Index change for July: 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish USD Headline Arguments

Philadelphia Fed President Harker urged that the Fed could also be on the finish of the present mountain climbing cycle, including afterward that they’ve reached a degree the place they’ll maintain rates of interest regular then begin chopping charges subsequent yr

Moody’s downgraded 10 mid-size regional U.S. banks and put six different lenders on discover beneath overview

U.S. IBD/TIPP financial optimism index fell from 41.3 to one-year low of 40.3 in August vs. 43.0 forecast

U.S. Weekly Preliminary Jobless Claims: 248.0k (229.0k forecast; 227.0k earlier)

U.S. Client Costs Index change for July: 3.2% y/y (3.3% y/y forecast; 3.0% y/y earlier); Core CPI at 4.7% y/y (4.8% y/y forecast/earlier)

College of Michigan U.S. Client Sentiment Index for August: 71.2 (71.3 forecast; 71.6 earlier)

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of EUR vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Euro pairs moved principally sideways for the primary half of the week as there have been no main stories on deck.  As a substitute, the shared foreign money functioned primarily as a counter foreign money in opposition to its rivals with catalysts lined up, and certain benefited from some threat aversion vibes this week.

A comparatively upbeat eurozone inflation outlook doubtless allowed it to finish up within the inexperienced versus majority of its foreign exchange friends, besides in opposition to the U.S. greenback, chalking up notable good points in opposition to the yen and commodity currencies.

🟢 Bullish EUR Headline Arguments

Sentix Investor Confidence for August: -18.9 (-23.4 forecast; -22.5 earlier); sentiment for Germany hits -30.7, the bottom stage since Oct. 22

Germany Closing CPI for July: 6.2% (6.2% forecast; 6.4% earlier); “the event of meals costs continues to have an upward impact on inflation. As well as, the rise in power costs was once more considerably bigger than within the two earlier months.”

ECB Financial Bulletin: Governing Council nonetheless sees inflation remaining too excessive for an prolonged time period

🔴 Bearish EUR Headline Arguments

German industrial manufacturing slowed by 1.5% m/m in July vs. estimated 0.4% decline and former 0.1% dip

Client inflation expectations for the Euro space within the subsequent 12 months fell in June to three.4% from 3.9%, in accordance an ECB survey

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of GBP vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Sterling was additionally off to a very good begin for the week however began falling again inside vary over the subsequent couple of days, presumably because of broad threat aversion vibes.

Volatility picked up proper across the launch of the U.S. CPI figures the place the British foreign money took a bearish lean, doubtless on U.S. greenback power and broad risk-off vibes.

However the tide turned on Friday after a surprisingly constructive U.Okay. GDP replace for the second quarter, a quantity telling merchants that the BOE’s job to regulate inflation ain’t executed but. This appears to have been sufficient to attract in sufficient consumers to place the British pound within the second spot for the week simply behind the Dollar.

🟢 Bullish GBP Headline Arguments

U.Okay. financial system information shock development, up by 0.2% q/q in Q2 (vs. 0.1% in Q1, 0.0% anticipated), aided by development throughout manufacturing, pc programming, and hospitality

U.Okay. Manufacturing Manufacturing for June: 2.4% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish GBP Headline Arguments

U.Okay. home costs fell 0.3% m/m in July vs. anticipated flat studying and earlier 0.1% dip, in keeping with Halifax

RICS Home Value Steadiness for July: -53.0% (-52.0% forecast; -48.0% earlier); “tighter lending setting continues to weigh closely on residence purchaser exercise”

BRC Retail Gross sales Monitor for July: 1.8% (3.8% forecast; 4.2% earlier);

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CHF vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The Swiss financial system additionally had a comparatively mild schedule when it comes to information occasions, with solely the jobless fee and SNB overseas foreign money reserves information on the docket early on.

Most franc pairs tossed and turned inside a comparatively tight vary for essentially the most a part of the week, earlier than CHF/JPY and NZD/CHF broke away from the remainder of the pack on Thursday.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Swiss jobless fee ticked increased from 2.0% to 2.1% in July vs. projected 2.0% studying

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of AUD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Aussie pairs had been off to a gradual begin as merchants appeared on edge forward of top-tier Chinese language financial releases, and certain on the current shift in sentiment that the RBA will maintain off of additional fee hikes for now.

The commodity foreign money bought off upon seeing the downbeat underlying parts of an in any other case upbeat headline Chinese language commerce steadiness, notably on the droop in imports and exports because of weaker demand situations.

After a little bit of a reprieve midweek, the higher-yielding AUD caught one other wave decrease on China’s PPI miss and the dearth of stimulus particulars from the nation’s central financial institution and authorities.

A muted inflation outlook for the Land Down Below doubtless contributed to bearish strain, however the true promoting got here through the Thursday U.S. session, correlating with the broad risk-off transfer after Fed officers reiterated a lean in the direction of additional fee hikes forward.

🟢 Bullish AUD Headline Arguments

Australia’s ANZ job ads picked up by 0.4% m/m in July vs. earlier 2.7% droop (downgraded from initially reported 2.5% drop)

NAB enterprise confidence index improved from downgraded -1 determine in June to +2 in July, reflecting barely higher situations

🔴 Bearish AUD Headline Arguments

Australia’s Westpac shopper sentiment index fell by 0.4% in July in response to RBA pause, following earlier 2.7% uptick in June

Chinese language commerce surplus rose from $70.6 billion to $80.6 billion in July vs. $70.8 billion forecast, as exports fell 14.5% y/y whereas imports slipped 12.4% y/y

Chinese language headline CPI down by 0.3% y/y in July vs. estimated 0.4% decline and former flat studying, headline PPI down by 4.4% y/y vs. earlier 5.4% droop and anticipated 4.0% fall

Australia’s MI inflation expectations fell from 5.2% to 4.9% in July, suggesting weaker worth pressures over the subsequent 12 months

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CAD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Consolidation was additionally the secret for the Loonie in the beginning of the week as bulls tried to shrug off bearish vibes from Canada’s weak jobs launch on Friday.

Nevertheless, a mixture of risk-off flows from weak Chinese language commerce information, a drop in Canada’s exports, and a downgrade of a number of U.S. lenders dragged the commodity foreign money south on Tuesday.

It managed to drag barely increased earlier than getting beat down once more when China’s inflation figures missed the mark, earlier than most CAD pairs (besides CAD/JPY and NZD/CAD) settled again in ranges.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Canada Constructing Permits for June: 6.1% m/m (-1.3% m/m forecast; 12.6% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

In accordance with the EIA, the U.S. will output a report of 12.8M barrels a day in 2023, countering OPEC output cuts

Canada Commerce Steadiness for June: -C$3.7B (C$410M forecast; -C$2.68B earlier); exports fell 0.4% in actual phrases, whereas actual imports had been up 0.9%

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of NZD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Identical to the Aussie, the Kiwi began the week in tight consolidation, as merchants doubtless held out forward of China’s commerce steadiness and inflation releases.

The commodity foreign money picked up on sturdy bearish vibes on Tuesday, when Chinese language exports and imports mirrored steep declines, barely making the most of the slight uptick in quarterly inflation expectations for New Zealand.

One other spherical of consolidation adopted over the subsequent couple of days earlier than volatility ticked increased proper across the U.S. CPI launch, inflicting most NZD pairs to type recent intraweek lows except NZD/JPY.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

New Zealand quarterly inflation expectations ticked increased from 2.79% to 2.83% q/q, suggesting a possible pickup in worth pressures over the subsequent two years

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Chinese language commerce surplus rose from $70.6 billion to $80.6 billion in July vs. $70.8 billion forecast, as exports fell 14.5% y/y whereas imports slipped 12.4% y/y

Chinese language headline CPI down by 0.3% y/y in July vs. estimated 0.4% decline and former flat studying, headline PPI down by 4.4% y/y vs. earlier 5.4% droop and anticipated 4.0% fall

JPY Pairs

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of JPY vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The Japanese yen is trailing far behind its friends, following a few large drops on Tuesday and Thursday.

Bearish strain was already current early within the week, earlier than the selloff accelerated when Japan printed weaker than anticipated earnings and spending information. Danger-off flows on weak Chinese language commerce information propped it briefly, however the unfavourable lean rapidly resumed forward of the U.S. CPI report.

The yen stabilized on Thursday, correlating with U.S. inflation updates and hawkish rhetoric from Fed officers. With no main information from Japan, it may be argued that the yen returned again to its ‘protected haven’ tendencies as Fed fee hike hypothesis returned with Fed communicate signaling increased odds of extra fee hikes forward.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Japan’s Economic system Watchers Sentiment index improved from 53.6 to 54.4 in July vs 54.0 consensus

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Japanese main indicators dipped from 109.2% to 108.9% in June as anticipated, suggesting weaker financial exercise

Japanese common money earnings up 2.3% y/y vs. 3.0% forecast in June, family spending slumped 4.2% y/y following earlier 4.0% decline

Japanese producer costs rose by 3.6% y/y in July vs. projected 3.5% acquire, slower than earlier 4.3% improve and marking its seventh consecutive month-to-month dip



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