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HomeForexFX Weekly Recap: August 14 – 18, 2023

FX Weekly Recap: August 14 – 18, 2023

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Stronger-than-expected U.S. and U.Okay. information releases supported hawkish biases for the Fed and BOE, boosting each the U.S. greenback and British pound to the highest of this week’s rankings.

In the meantime, China’s progress considerations saved a lid on the demand for commodity-related currencies like AUD and NZD, in addition to fueling threat aversion habits this week.

Missed the most important foreign exchange headlines? Right here’s what it’s essential to know from final week’s FX motion:

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The U.S. greenback chopped round internet inexperienced in first half of the week as optimism for a “tender touchdown” within the U.S. bought combined in with considerations over China’s progress.

The secure haven actually began gaining floor on Wednesday when the FOMC assembly minutes confirmed a consensus on the 25bps July fee hike AND famous the members’ bias for additional tightening amidst upside inflation dangers.

The Buck ended within the inexperienced and gained probably the most towards comdolls like AUD, NZD, and CAD however bowed right down to GBP over hawkish BOE expectations.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Retail Gross sales for July 2023: 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast/earlier); Core Retail Gross sales have been up 1.0% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m earlier)

Import Costs for July 2023: 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m earlier)

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned “I’m not able to say that we’re accomplished” elevating charges; including that the Fed can “take slightly bit extra time, get some information” earlier than deciding whether or not they should do extra

Industrial Manufacturing for July: 1.0% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.8% m/m earlier)

FOMC assembly minutes: “Most members continued to see vital upside dangers to inflation, which may require additional tightening of financial coverage” however “a pair” of members pushed to go away charges unchanged in July.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for August: 12.0 (-8.0 forecast; -13.5 earlier); Employment index fell from -1.0 to -6.0; Costs Paid Index rose from 9.5 to twenty.8

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for August: -19.0 (4.0 forecast, 1.1 earlier)

NAHB Housing Market Index for August fell to 50.0 vs. 56.0 forecast/earlier

Mortgage demand falls as the common 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage will increase to 7.16% vs. 7.09% the earlier week.

Constructing Permits for July: 0.1% m/m (1.1% m/m forecast; -3.7% earlier); Housing Begins have been up 3.9% m/m (1.7% m/m forecast; -11.7% m/m earlier)

Weekly Preliminary Jobless Claims: 239.0k (241.0k forecast; 250.0k earlier); persevering with claims rose to 1.716M from 1.684M

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of EUR vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

There weren’t quite a lot of top-tier studies printed from the Eurozone, so EUR largely traded as a countercurrency to broader FX themes this week.

The higher-than-expected Eurozone GDP and sentiment studies in addition to the euro’s lowkey secure haven standing within the area most likely helped the widespread forex finish the week greater towards the comdolls. EUR nonetheless traded decrease towards the robust GBP and secure havens like USD, CHF, and JPY, nonetheless.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

German ZEW Financial Sentiment Index for August: -12.3 (-15.0 forecast; -14.7 earlier)

Euro Space Flash GDP estimate for Q2 2023: +0.3% q/q vs. 0.0% q/q earlier

Euro Space Industrial Manufacturing for June 2023: 0.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m; 0.0% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Germany Wholesale Costs for July 2023: -2.8percenty/y (-2.5% y/y forecast; -2.9% y/y earlier); largely pushed by the -20.8% y/y drop in wholesale petroleum merchandise

Flash Euro Space employment estimate at 0.2% q/q vs. 0.5% q/q earlier

Euro Space CPI for July 2023: -0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m earlier)

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of GBP vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The British pound was THE strongest forex this week because of the most recent U.Okay.wages and core inflation figures giving room for extra BOE fee hikes. Some are even pricing in a 6.00% official financial institution fee for the central financial institution this yr!

GBP was already making greater highs and better lows towards the comdolls within the first half of the week, however the forex’s positive factors turned extra broad-based after the U.Okay. printed its hawkish information factors and topping out on Thursday.

On Friday, a weaker-than-expected retail gross sales replace from the U.Okay. had merchants taking revenue forward of the weekend.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Common weekly earnings together with bonuses up by 8.2% y/y within the three months to June, marking the quickest improve since July 2021

Headline inflation cooled from 7.9% y/y to six.8% y/y as anticipated in July; core inflation remained at 6.9% y/y (vs. 6.8% y/y anticipated)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

The unemployment fee rose from 4.0% to 4.2% within the three months to June, the best since October 2021.

The jobless claimant rely change up by 29K in July (vs. 19.6K anticipated, 16.2K earlier)

Producer enter costs fell by 3.3% y/y in July, down from June’s 2.2% y/y decline. Output (manufacturing facility) costs additionally fell by 0.8% y/y from a 0.3% y/y improve in June.

U.Okay. retail gross sales slipped -1.2% m/m in July vs. estimated -0.6% decline and earlier 0.6% uptick (downgraded from initially reported 0.7% achieve)

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CHF vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The Swiss franc was in every single place as a countercurrency within the first half of the week as merchants priced in top-tier studies from different economies.

CHF didn’t see noticeable traits till Wednesday when fears over China’s progress accelerated comdoll weaknesses whereas hawkish expectations for the Fed and the BOE boosted the greenback and the pound.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Producer value index slipped by 0.1% m/m in July (vs. 0.2% anticipated, 0.0% earlier)

Swiss Industrial Manufacturing for Q2 2023: -0.8% y/y (2.5% y/y forecast; 4.2% y/y earlier)

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of AUD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Between China’s progress fears, Australia’s information misses, and considerations for a high-interest fee atmosphere, it was an unlucky week to be an Aussie bull.

In fact, it didn’t assist that the RBA’s assembly minutes confirmed that members already imagine that they’ll obtain their inflation goal “with the money fee staying at its current stage.

AUD was buying and selling in broad ranges on Monday and Tuesday however ultimately broke decrease on Wednesday and made new weekly lows on Thursday earlier than bearish sentiment exhausted after the flush decrease sparked by the weaker-than-expected Australian employment replace.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Melbourne Institute Main Index lifted barely from -0.67% to -0.60% in July; “Beneath-trend progress momentum set to increase into 2024.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Over the weekend, China’s largest personal property developer Nation Backyard suspended the buying and selling of 11 of its onshore bonds beginning Monday.

PBoC unexpectedly minimize the speed on 401B CNY ($55.25B) price of one-year MLF loans by 15bps to 2.50%, its second minimize in three months.

China’s mounted asset investments have been up by 3.4% within the first seven months of 2023 from the identical interval a yr earlier (vs. 3.8% anticipated and former)

RBA August assembly minutes: There’s a “credible path again to the inflation goal with the money fee staying at its current stage

PBoC injected 297B CNY money through seven-day reverse repurchase contracts; units yuan fixing that was 783 pips stronger than the common estimate

Australia’s wage value index grew by 3.6% y/y in Q2 (vs. 3.7% anticipated, 3.4% earlier) supporting one other RBA fee hike pause in September

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CAD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

A warmer-than-expected Canadian inflation report didn’t do the Canadian greenback favors this week because the comdoll nonetheless moved to the tune of threat sentiment.

That’s, CAD traded in broad ranges earlier than broader FX themes like anti-comdoll, pro-USD and pro-GBP traits dictated the Loonie’s value motion.

CAD appears set to finish the week greater towards AUD and NZD however decrease towards the secure havens, GBP, and even EUR.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

CPI for July: 0.6% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m earlier); core CPI was 0.5% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m earlier)

Wholesales commerce for June: 2.8% m/m (-4.4% m/m forecast; 2.9% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Housing Begins for July fell -10% y/y to 255.0k (243.0k forecast; 283.5k earlier)

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of NZD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Very like the Australian greenback, NZD traded in broad ranges within the first half of the week earlier than threat aversion and Chinese language progress considerations dragged the comdoll decrease.

Kiwi appears set to finish the week decrease throughout the board besides towards the Aussie.

NZD is simply a tiny bit stronger than AUD this week however that’s most likely due to the RBNZ’s “hawkish maintain” determination towards the RBA’s not-so-hawkish assembly minutes.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Abroad customer arrivals have been up by 11.3% in June after three consecutive months of decline

New Zealand eliminated the final of its COVID restrictions together with obligatory masks and isolation for individuals who examined constructive.

As anticipated, the RBNZ saved its official money fee unchanged at 5.5% in August, and mentioned charges “want to stay at a restrictive stage for the foreseeable future

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

BusinessNZ providers index additional contracted from 49.6 to 47.8 in July; “the outcomes all level to a pointy drop in demand in July, considerably accelerating the slowing pattern that had been evident for a lot of months

International Dairy Costs Index for Aug. 15, 2023: -7.4% to $2.875

RBNZ Gov. Orr mentioned gentle inflation is the “naked minimal we have to see” earlier than contemplating fee cuts. He added that “We don’t really feel a rush to be altering charges anytime quickly

JPY Pairs

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of JPY vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Talks of a “YENtervention” saved a lid on JPY’s positive factors and even impressed downswings early within the week.

The yen ultimately behaved as a secure haven although. That’s, it closed greater towards the comdolls and EUR whereas taking a backseat to the hawkish central financial institution expectations that drove the U.S. greenback and British pound greater this week.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Industrial output revised greater from 2.0% to 2.4% m/m in June (vs. -2.2% in Might)

GDP grew by 1.5% q/q in Q2 (vs. 0.8% anticipated, 0.7% earlier); annual GDP was up by 6.0% (vs. 3.6% earlier) as auto exports and vacationer arrivals helped offset slowing shopper restoration

Japanese nationwide core CPI slowed from 3.3% y/y to three.1% as anticipated in July, as unit labor prices are barely rising

Japan providers inflation rose to 2% in July for the primary time in 30 years, elevating the argument for coverage normalization.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Japan Commerce Steadiness for July: -78.7B (26.0B forecast; 43.1B earlier)



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